Selfish connection of China's reaction to India-Pakistan tension

After India's attacks in Pakistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir, the whole world is keeping an eye on this development. Pakistan is scared by the courage with which India has given a befitting reply to Pakistan, but the world is suspicious that both the countries are nuclear capable, the situation may become more tense.

This situation has worked to realign the diplomatic equations not only in South Asia but also at the global level. Many countries of the world have reacted to this conflict, but China's reaction is of special importance, not only because of its geographical position, but also because of its economic, strategic and tactical interests in this region. Reacting to this situation, China has traditionally appealed to both the countries to exercise restraint and refrain from tense steps. This statement, though superficially looks neutral, but behind it are hidden China's deeply rooted strategic thinking and economic investments. In fact, China has long been adopting a policy of balancing its presence in South Asia. On the one hand, it is a close friend and patron of Pakistan, while on the other hand, it has been trying to maintain a complex but extremely important economic relationship with India.

Analysts believe that China would not want a war between India and Pakistan under any circumstances, because it would not only hurt its economic interests, but would also disrupt its plans for geographical and geopolitical expansion in Central Asia. Due to the already ongoing tariff war with America, China would not want any new front to open with India. China's presence in Pakistan is not only strategic but also driven by deep economic interests. Between 2005 and 2024, China has invested about US $ 68 billion in Pakistan, in which the 'China-Pakistan Economic Corridor' (CPEC) and the 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI) are prominent. The route of CPEC passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a disputed area that India considers its integral part.

In this context, any form of Indian military intervention in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a matter of serious concern for China, as it not only gives rise to regional instability but also endangers China's multi-billion dollar projects. This is why China's public statement may seem peaceful, but its undercurrent is against instability and in favor of protecting investments. According to analysts, China's strategic corridor from Xinjiang to Gwadar can be effective only when stability and security remain in the region. They believe that if political or terrorist instability persists in Pakistan even after the completion of CPEC or BRI projects, China will not be able to get their economic benefits, so China wants peace to remain between India and Pakistan, even if it is only superficial.

Let us tell you that bilateral trade between China and Pakistan reached US $ 23.1 billion in 2024, of which most of the exports were from China. China exported extensively to Pakistan in areas such as electronic equipment, semiconductors, smartphones, heavy machinery and steel. For China, Pakistan is a market, a route, and a strategic pawn. In such a situation, China cannot risk any kind of instability, but China is not only dependent on Pakistan. India, one of the largest economies in Asia, is not only a trading partner for it but also a competitor. China knows that if tensions with India escalate too much, it may have to pay a price not only on the political front but also on the economic and global level. Therefore, its attitude of appealing to both sides to exercise restraint is actually a strategic neutrality-at the root of which lies selfishness, not justice.

It is true that China has equipped Pakistan with modern weapons. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 81 percent of Pakistan's arms imports come from China. From BVR missiles like PL-15 and SD-10 to modern radars and fighter jets, China has given Pakistan every kind of military technology. The two countries also conduct joint military exercises. But this does not mean that China will openly support Pakistan in any war against India. History is witness that whether it is 1965, 1971 or Kargil war, China never opened a direct front against India. The reason for this is that China's approach is basically commercial and self-interest-oriented. It does not want war, neither for Pakistan nor against India. It only wants that its dominance in the region remains and there is no threat to its economic projects.

China has often supported Pakistan on international forums, especially when it comes to action against terrorist organizations or institutions like FATF. On many occasions, China used veto on terrorists like Masood Azhar being declared 'global terrorists' by the United Nations. It is a part of China's strategy that it helps Pakistan so that it can deepen its roots there, but also does not want to spoil its trade and diplomatic relations with India.

China's global position is also behind this dual policy. The ongoing tensions with the US, trade barriers in Europe and domestic economic slowdown have forced China to avoid a new crisis in South Asia. China is now gradually leaning towards soft power, and it knows that open confrontation with a country like India can also damage its global image.

Gwadar Port, which is the main sea gateway for China to reach Central Asia and the Gulf countries, is still surrounded by security and social unrest. There have been repeated attacks on Chinese citizens and projects in Balochistan, which is increasing China's concern. China knows that if instability increases in Pakistan or a war-like situation arises with India, not only can its investments sink, but Pakistan can also move towards a failed state in the future, which will directly affect China's long-term plans.

Overall, China's role amid India-Pakistan tension cannot be left as simply neutral. Every step taken by it is well thought out, self-interest controlled and motivated by long term strategic plans. China neither wants to anger India nor lose Pakistan. It wants to strike a balance in which there is neither war nor its interests are harmed. India too will have to understand this policy and mould its diplomatic efforts in such a way that it can make China more accountable on global platforms. 

The closeness between Pakistan and China is certainly a matter of concern for India, but this relationship is also bound by many limitations and constraints. China's concern is its projects, not Pakistan's sovereignty or the strength of its army. India will have to assess this situation from a broad perspective, in which a strategy will have to be formulated by taking together all three elements of geopolitics, diplomacy and economy.