Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Seat-Sharing Tensions, Caste Equations, and Coalition Challenges

Bihar politics has always revolved around coalition dynamics and caste equations. Until recently, there was a sense of unity and coordination within both the NDA and Grand Alliance camps. However, as the assembly elections approach, this coordination appears to be turning into a tug-of-war over seat-sharing. While larger parties are pursuing their political interests, smaller parties remain adamant about demanding a respectable share of seats.

Within the NDA, the initial seat-sharing agreement between the BJP and JDU seems nearly finalized, with both parties expected to contest 100 seats each. However, the real issue lies with the remaining 43 seats, which are being claimed by Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (Secular), and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha. The challenge isn’t just about numbers; it’s also about asserting control over the crucial Dalit and Mahadalit vote banks.

Chirag Paswan, who refers to himself as Modi’s Hanuman, is demanding more seats based on his party’s 100% strike rate in the last Lok Sabha elections. Manjhi, on the other hand, insists that his party should win at least 20 seats to be recognized and has hinted at contesting all 100 seats if his demands are not met.

Political experts believe the 2023 caste survey has made Dalit votes even more significant. Dalits constitute 19.65% of Bihar’s population, with Paswans at 5.31%, Ravidas at 5.25%, and Musahars at 3.08%. These figures emphasize the importance of Dalit leaders like Chirag and Manjhi within the NDA. However, if either leader becomes dissatisfied and exits the alliance, it could disrupt the NDA’s caste-based calculations.

The BJP faces a delicate situation, as both Chirag and Manjhi are demanding more seats than their electoral performance justifies. In 2020, Chirag contested separately from the NDA, fielding candidates in 135 seats. He won only one seat, but his party’s presence caused significant damage to the JDU by splitting votes. This is why the JDU is cautious about Chirag’s role in the current election.

Meanwhile, Manjhi argues that his support base is spread across the state, and his party deserves a fair share. Despite limited past performance, he believes he can play a decisive role in any alliance’s success. If the NDA fails to satisfy both Chirag and Manjhi, it risks splitting the Dalit vote—potentially benefiting the Grand Alliance.

The Grand Alliance faces similar internal challenges. Although the RJD is the dominant party, seat claims by the Congress, Left parties, and VIP are creating tensions. The Congress, despite a weak strike rate in the last election, is demanding 70 seats, citing its 10% vote share statewide. It argues that the Grand Alliance’s social coalition strategy is incomplete without it.

Meanwhile, CPI(ML) is seeking 40 seats this time. In the last election, it contested 19 seats and won 12, with strongholds in Magadh, Shahabad, and Seemanchal. The party claims its presence secures Dalit and EBC votes for the alliance. CPI(ML) leaders argue that if NDA is offering 40 seats to its Dalit leaders, the Grand Alliance should do the same.

VIP chief Mukesh Sahni is also demanding 60 seats, claiming an 11% vote bank. He has already identified six potential constituencies and plans to contest one himself. Though disillusioned with the BJP—accusing it of being anti-reservation—he hasn’t entirely ruled out returning to the NDA.

Many seats in Bihar are witnessing intense competition within both alliances. For example, the Matihani seat in Begusarai is contested by both the LJP(R) and JDU. The LJP(R) considers it a winnable seat, but JDU's Rajkumar Singh refuses to withdraw his claim. Similarly, the Alauli seat in Khagaria—won by the RJD last time—is now being eyed by both alliances.

Simri Bakhtiyarpur is another key battleground, where RJD’s Yusuf Salauddin narrowly defeated Mukesh Sahni in 2020. Sahni is likely to contest this seat again and has indicated that the RJD may even allow him to contest on his own party’s symbol.

The biggest challenge for the major parties—BJP, JDU, and RJD—is to manage the ambitions of their smaller allies. If these parties are not given enough seats, they may contest independently, leading to a split in votes and directly benefiting the rival alliance.