This Vice Presidential Election Will Set the Real Barometer of India’s Political Climate

The stage is fully set for the election of India’s 15th Vice President. Voting is scheduled for today, Tuesday, September 9, and the results will also be declared today itself. This election came about unexpectedly after Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned from his post late on the evening of July 21, citing health reasons. He had assumed office in August 2022 and was supposed to serve until 2027. However, his sudden resignation not only accelerated the constitutional process but also stirred fresh political activity.

Normally, the vice presidential election is considered politically dull, as it does not involve direct public support and the electoral college is limited to Members of Parliament from both houses. But this time, the election has become unusual and intriguing for several reasons. From the abrupt resignation to party strategies, alliance equations, and the possibility of cross-voting, everything has made this election a topic of widespread discussion. In political circles, the era of "dinner politics" is in full swing. Alliances are not merely relying on formal appeals, but are also actively engaging their MPs through personal outreach, private dinners, and constant dialogue. From Parliament to social media, the buzz around this election is palpable.

Analysts believe this election is not just about filling a constitutional vacancy but will also test the strength of the ruling power, the depth of the Centre-federal relationship, and the acceptability of leadership. Dhankhar’s sudden resignation raises several questions. Was it purely due to health reasons, or does it indicate deeper political undercurrents? This question continues to echo in political corridors. The timing is also notable — right after the Monsoon Session of Parliament had just concluded and the political environment was already in an electoral mode.

Recently, the Constitution Club of India election saw BJP MP Rajiv Pratap Rudy win by a significant margin. Though seen as a low-scale election, it ignited conversations about the role of power and party structure, especially after reports of internal BJP cross-voting emerged. This has led to further speculation about whether the upcoming vice presidential election will follow predictable arithmetic or witness surprising twists.

A total of 782 MPs will vote in this election, including all elected and nominated members of both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The numbers are clear: the NDA alliance needs 391 votes to win and already commands around 422. The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, holds around 312 votes. So, numerically, an NDA victory appears certain. But the real question is: which alliance secures more votes than their projected numbers? Any cross-voting would signal cracks in internal cohesion.

The NDA has fielded a candidate with a strong RSS background. This choice is more than symbolic — it sends a clear political message that the BJP leadership still maintains strong coordination with the RSS. Fielding an RSS volunteer for a high constitutional post like Vice President reflects this synergy. The INDIA alliance, in contrast, has nominated a candidate from South India, attempting to frame the election as a South vs. South contest. However, this strategy seems incomplete as they lack solid backing from major southern parties. In Andhra Pradesh, both ruling and opposition parties are supporting the NDA candidate. Tamil Nadu’s DMK has clarified that ideological compatibility, not Tamil identity alone, will determine their support. Hence, the INDIA bloc’s southern strategy appears weak.

Analysts suggest that if the DMK withdraws its support, the BJP could use this as a major issue in the next assembly elections. Conversely, if the DMK supports the opposition candidate, it could face questions about the ideological integrity of the INDIA alliance. In Telangana, AIMIM has declared its support for retired judge B. Sudarshan Reddy. This move, driven by local identity and regional sentiments, carries symbolic weight in Hyderabad politics but may have limited national impact. Still, it indicates that even regional parties are using the vice presidential election to assert their identity.

The Vice President is elected through the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system. MPs rank candidates in order of preference — first, second, third, and so on. As party whip does not apply here, MPs are free to vote based on individual choices. History shows that this freedom often leads to unpredictable outcomes. The 1969 presidential election is a key example, where Congress's official candidate lost, and V.V. Giri won with Indira Gandhi's backing. The same system this time also opens the door to uncertainties, as MPs are not bound to vote along party lines. This makes it a real challenge for both alliances to keep their MPs united.

The presence of South Indian candidates, regional party strategies, and personal political equations increase the chances of cross-voting. The Vice President holds the second-highest constitutional post in India, acting not only as the executive deputy to the President but also as the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha. If the President’s position becomes vacant, the Vice President assumes the role of Acting President. This adds immense significance to the election from the perspective of constitutional stability. Since the Vice President is the Rajya Sabha Chairperson, their working style directly impacts the functioning of the Upper House, legislative procedures, and parliamentary culture. That’s why both the ruling party and the opposition are taking this election very seriously.

Another key aspect making this election interesting is the South Indian angle. Whether it’s the NDA candidate or the opposition’s, both hail from the South. This not only makes the contest intriguing but also underlines the rising importance of southern India in national politics. In the coming years, major elections are due in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Fielding candidates from the South seems to be a part of long-term strategic planning. While the NDA’s victory is nearly assured, the real test lies in how many votes they can secure. If they garner significantly more than their numbers, it will reflect organizational strength and leadership command. But if they fall short or if cross-voting surfaces, it may raise questions about internal control.

Similarly, for the INDIA alliance, this election is not just about winning or losing. It will test their internal unity and strategic maturity.

In conclusion, while the final outcome may appear predictable and the NDA likely to win, this election is much more than a numbers game. It will reveal who truly holds sway in Parliament, to what extent regional parties can act independently, and how cross-voting might challenge both ruling and opposition leaderships. Although the Vice President is not elected through a direct public vote, this election reflects shifts in power, alliance strength, and the changing dynamics of Indian politics. That’s why this time, the Vice Presidential election is not just a constitutional formality, but a true political thermometer.