Modi-Xi meeting, US pressure and India's diplomatic dilemma

 

The story of India-China relations is not just the story of two neighbours, but it is also the story of the global power equations of the 21st century. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met face-to-face during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sunday. Modi visited China after seven years and this was the first time since 2018 that the two leaders were talking face-to-face with each other on Chinese soil. This meeting cannot be seen as just a formality or a photo-op. There are deep diplomatic calculations, strategic compulsions and international pressures behind it.

 

Prime Minister Modi said in this meeting that the meaningful discussion between the two leaders in Kazan (Russia) last year had given a positive direction to the relations. He mentioned disengagement and restoration of peace on the border and underlined the consensus between the Special Representatives of the two countries on border management. At the same time, citing global changes, Xi Jinping said that both China and India are representatives of ancient civilizations and the countries with the largest population in the world. According to him, the association of the dragon and the elephant is very important for the Global South and humanity.

No matter how many positive things were said during the meeting, the reality is that the status quo before April 2020 has not been restored in eastern Ladakh. China still calls Arunachal Pradesh Southern Tibet and has been repeatedly naming it. India believes in the "One China Policy", but China does not seem ready to accept the One India Policy. This conflict is the biggest burden of this relationship. 

In the past years, China has not only strengthened its military presence on the border, but has also deepened its strategic partnership with Pakistan. Whether it is providing real-time radar and satellite data to Pakistan or planning to build the world's largest dam near the border, every step of China poses a direct security threat to India. In such a situation, the question is bound to arise whether the Modi-Xi meeting will really bring a new turn in the relationship or will it remain only a formal dialogue?

Another important dimension of this meeting is America. India-US relations have strengthened over the past two decades, but the pressurizing attitude of the Trump administration has complicated the situation. Former US ambassador Michael McFaul openly said that Trump has isolated Modi so much that he is now forced to share the stage with Xi Jinping and Putin. This comment is not just criticism, but an indication that discomfort is growing in India-US relations.

India knows that it cannot fill its strategic gaps without America. America's role in defense technology, energy cooperation, and Indo-Pacific strategy is very important, but if America continues to put pressure on India, then India will have to find alternatives. Dialogue with China is part of that search for alternatives. China is India's second largest trading partner. In 2024, trade between the two countries reached about $ 127.7 billion. India imported $ 48 billion from China in electronics and electrical equipment alone. This trade imbalance is not in India's favour, but the dependence of India's industries is so deep that it is not possible to distance oneself suddenly.

This is the economic compulsion that draws both countries to the negotiating table despite political bitterness. Modi tried to send a message that people-to-people contact is still the backbone of the relationship by mentioning the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and the resumption of direct flights in Tianjin, but the real question is whether all this is enough to cover up China's strategic cunningness? 

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the think tank Brookings Institution, says that today the relations between Russia and China are much stronger than those between India and China. This is a serious challenge for India, because Russia has traditionally been a friend of India and has always been inclined towards the anti-China pole. But today the same Russia is dependent on China due to the Ukraine war and Western sanctions.

India also has to understand that the Russia-China alliance can limit its strategic independence in South Asia. India has no choice but to maintain a balance between America, Russia and China, but this balance is like walking on a very delicate rope. According to defense experts, Modi is going to China in a very weak position this time. The rift in relations with America, China's aggression on the border and China's adamant stand on Pakistan are putting pressure on India. China has neither given any concession on LAC, nor on the issue of trade or Tibet.

According to experts, past experiences show that China will take advantage of Indian weaknesses and will not try to become a reliable partner. They reminded that when Modi tried to improve relations with China in the early days, China took advantage of the same and quietly made inroads on the border. The situation is no different today. Modi is also to face Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif at the Tianjin Summit. This meeting is taking place for the first time after the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor. India-Pakistan relations have always been linked to India-China equations. China is Pakistan's all-weather friend and India knows that as long as China keeps its hand on Pakistan, it is difficult to expect peace in South Asia.

The biggest challenge for India is how to maintain a balance between America, China and Russia. Being completely dependent on America is risky and breaking ties with China is also impractical. This is why this visit of Modi is a part of the search for strategic balance. Analysts believe that Modi is not going to bow down to American pressure. India will decide its energy policy and foreign policy on its own. This does not mean that India-US relations have broken, but that India wants to adopt multi-vector diplomacy.

Overall, there is no possibility of any immediate miraculous result from the Modi-Xi meeting. This meeting is more symbolic and less of a real change, but it is also true that in this time of global power balance, India will have to remain active on every front. 

China is not a reliable partner, but it is also not possible to ignore it. America is an important partner, but if it keeps India under pressure, then it will be forced to look for alternatives. Russia is an old friend, but its priorities have changed now. In such a situation, India will not only have to strengthen its strategic options, but also make its economic and defense capabilities self-reliant internally. This is the path that can take India out of a state of weakness and bring it to a position of balancing power.